Where as I don’t advocate trying to gamble your way to millionaire riches, I want to explore an idea today which could earn you some money by betting on FA Cup football matches more specifically, matches taking place in the third round.
If you didn’t already know, the third round is where all the big teams enter the competition the top sides from the Premier League and the Championship. They join the teams still left in the competition from League One, League Two and non league football.
What’s great about the FA Cup is anybody could play anybody else. It really is the luck of the draw and as a result some interesting matches take place. Better still for us, there are certain rules you can follow to try and exploit random football matches.
Let’s take a look at a selection of matches as chosen by FreeBetSite.com for the third round of the FA Cup that took place a few weeks ago. I spotted a few patterns which seemed to be in place for some (but not all) the matches:
The home side playing one division below the away side.
Both sides play in the same division.
A local derby where the teams play in the same division or are separated by one division.
The website chose eight matches and predicted them all to end as draws after 90 minutes. The matches, odds and winnings to a £10 stake were as follows:
Birmingham vs Wolves
Pattern: Home side one division below away side & local derby
Dag & Red vs Millwall
Pattern: Local Derby (Dag & Red two divisions below Millwall)
Barnsley vs Swansea
Pattern: Home side one division below away side
Doncaster Rovers vs Notts County
Pattern: Unknown. Home side struggling one division above opposition playing well in their division.
Hull City vs Ipswich Town
Pattern: Both sides play in the same division
MK Dons vs QPR
Pattern: Unknown. Home side two divisions below away side.
Nottingham Forest vs Leicester City
Pattern: Both sides play in the same division & local derby
WBA vs Cardiff City
Pattern: Uknown. Home side plays one division above away side.
Overall, a profit of £55 was made from £10 stakes betting on these eight matches even though half of them were losing bets. Due to the odds on the draw being large compared to finding short-priced winners, you don’t need such a high percentage of winning bets to come out on top.
Something to think about for next season’s FA Cup third round!